[[ Don’t ]] Quoth the Maven: The 2022 Oscar Forecast!
Heeeeeeeeeere’s Oscar!
That’s right. It’s time we dispense with the TikTok lounging and test our Oscar pooling powers. And as we mark the 50th anniversary of the release of The Godfather (my fave line: “Leave the gun. Take the cannoli”), it’s time the Movie Maven gives you a forecast you can’t refuse.
For you first-timers here at the Maven’s forecasting camp, WELCOME! Pitch your tents, grab some knosh, and settle in for what should be one of the more nail-biting, second-guessing Oscar shows we’ve seen in awhile. And as I remind my longtime members of the Maven Mafia, especially those who are Oscar poolers, the numerical value of all my picks together is (still) equal to the number of Jessica Chastain’s Oscar wins: Yup. Not one. (Sorry, Jessica….maybe that will change tonight!)
Before we take our Os-cars out for a spin, let’s recap last year’s field trip, and yes, it was a trip in more ways than one. As regular members of the Maven Mafia recall, I batted a mildly respectable 13/18, showing more Mavenesque skills in the technical or “craft” categories, while fumbling mainly in the creative categories, missing on both leading actor categories for the first time in 31 years of forecasting.
Having offered up a generation of Oscar guess-work, I’m often asked if I favor the decision by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 2010 to expand the Picture Oscar ballot. At that time, the Academy opted to cap the Picture category at ten nominations, but a few years after that, the Academy made it an expandable category, with anywhere from 5 to 10 nominations depending on how many meet the minimum nomination vote threshold.
I get the Academy’s motive for expanding the ballot, which was to maintain viewer interest in the Oscars by increasing the chances that a more popular film would get nominated. The catalyst for the change was the Academy’s (absurd) omission of Chris Nolan’s The Dark Knight — the second and arguably best installment in his Batman trilogy — as a Picture nominee.
Yet, making more room on the Picture ballot is at best half the story. The Academy also opted for what is called a “preferential ballot.” Unlike the other Oscar categories, which use a popular ballot — one choice for voters, with the winner being the nominee with the most votes — the Picture ballot asks voters to rank some or all of the nominees in preferential order.
Here’s how it works:
When the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) receives the Oscar ballots, it divides up the Picture votes into “first choice” groups. For example, there will be one pile for CODA, another for The Power of the Dog, another for Belfast and so on. If more than 50 percent of Oscar voters are in the Belfast group it’s game over — and Belfast’s producers have the Picture Oscar. However, with a full slate of ten Picture nominees this year, it’s a given that won’t happen, and that’s when things start looking like Oscar Survivor.
The PwC tabulators start the Survivor phase by tossing out the film with the least number of first choice votes, and then those voters’ second choices become their first choices, and PwC reassigns them to their new groups. So, for example, if Nightmare Alley has the least number of votes, with 10, and seven of those voters picked CODA as their second choice, those voters are then put into Camp CODA, and so on (if at some point in the Survivor process, an Oscar voter’s first and second choices have been eliminated, then the voter is placed in her third preference). This process of tossing lesser popular films and redistributing those voters keeps going until one film’s group has more than 50 percent of Oscar voters.
The logic of preferential voting is based in part on the slightly but justifiably cynical assumption that, especially with an expanded field, Oscar voters will rank at the top the film or films they or those closest to them worked on. As a result….
- Oscars voters’ second or third choices could become as, or even more important than, their first choices, especially if there is strong disagreement among the top choices and more consensus in the second or third choice.
- Oscar voters whose first choices are the least popular films have the potential to be the most influential in the critical Survivor phase, since their second choices get counted first.
- The winner is not so much the “Best” Picture and more the “Relatively Most Liked Picture” among most Oscar voters. f
If you’re a political junkie and you’re thinking this sounds a bit like the Iowa Caucus, you’re right. Just as in a wide open field of candidates that are not likely to get more than 50 percent, the key to winning a preferential ballot is to not just have as many first choice voters as possible, but as many second choice votes, particularly among those whose first choices are likely to get tossed out earlier in the process.
So with all that as a prelude to the forecast for Picture Oscar, let’s take aim at this year’s nominees, which includes a bevy of bonus picks to add to the turmoil of your Oscar pool sheet.
Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
The writing categories tend to represent danger for those doing weighted Oscar pools due to consistently intense competition and lack of a clear front runner. This year’s Original Screenplay contest is no exception. The conventional wisdom is we are down to a coin flip between the Don’t Look Up writing team of Adam McKay and David Sirota, and Licorice Pizza’s Paul Thomas Anderson. If there is a dark horse here, it’s Kenneth Branagh, for his achingly poignant bio-script for Belfast. Branagh backers note that Ken was not on the ballot for Writers Guild, which went to McKay and Sirota. True, but Branagh surprisingly couldn’t score home court advantage at the British Academy Awards (aka the BAFTAs), losing to Anderson.
It truly is a coin flip, but I will give the edge to Anderson. Four times a nominee for one of the writing Oscars (he was arguably robbed with There Will Be Blood), Anderson is due. That said, if McKay and Sirota snag their own Gold Naked Man, don’t look know, but Don’t Look Up becomes a Best Picture dark horse. Weighted poolers, put this one on a low-point line.
Adapted Screenplay: Siân Heder (CODA)
Keep the coin out for this category as well, and poolers, take note that this category could prove to be a predictor for Picture, with the same top contenders in that category squaring off here: CODA’s Siân Heder and The Power of the Dog’s Jane Campion. Heder won at the BAFTAs, while Campion claimed the Writers Guild award.
Until the Academy opted for a preferential ballot for Picture in 2009, the Picture and Director categories were, in the immortal words of Forrest Gump, like peas and carrots — with rare exceptions, the Best Picture was made by the Best Director, and you’d find both close together on weighted pool ballots. The Picture preferential ballot changed that. In the last decade, only half of Picture winners had Director winners, while seven of those Picture winners also had a writing Oscar along with it. Last year was an exception, with Nomadlland winning Picture and Director, but not Adapted Screenplay. I’ll let you figure out if last year was an exception or the start of a trend.
Visual Effects: Free Guy
Long one of my bonus picks, I’ve decided to make this category a permanent addition to the forecast, despite its consistent threat to screw up both my predictions and my pool sheet. This year is a perfect example, with three worthy visual wonders: Dune, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and my pick: the “Ryan Reynolds can’t help but play himself again” vehicle, Free Guy. The challenge for both Dune and Spider-Man is expectations — you expect a sci-fi spectacle and a Marvel movie to be visual feasts for the senses. With Free Guy, more a video-game visual romp, you don’t know what could happen next, and that gives it the edge here.
FIRST BONUS PICK — Original Score: Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)
Got that coin handy that you used for the writing awards? You’ll need it here, although as many as four of the five nominees could called to make the walk to get hardware for the mantel. The two dark horses are Nicholas Britell (Don’t Look Up) and Germaine Franco (Encanto), while the two favorites are Greenwood, and Hans Zimmer (Dune). Zimmer is no stranger to Oscarville, with Dune being his 12th nomination. His one and only Oscar was for the worst Disney animated picture ever made, The Lion King (glad I got that out of the way). The Power of the Dog is Greenwood’s second nomination (his first was for Phantom Thread). I give the edge to Greenwood because his score is a more noticeable and powerful part of the story, while Zimmer’s often gets lost in the visual spectacle.
SECOND BONUS PICK — Production Design: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos (Dune)
I opted last year to offer up this category as a bonus pick after a long absence and scored with Mank. We’ll have a mini-streak going this year, but the competition is much tougher, with legit contenders coming from Nightmare Alley and West Side Story. In the end, the scope and scale of Dune is what sets it apart and gets it an Oscar.
IS THE THIRD BONUS PICK THE CHARM? MAYBE — Costume Design: Jenny Beavan (Cruella)
Jenny will win by a thread literally (in more ways than one) and figuratively. The four other nominees bring serious sewing game, making this arguably the most competitive category of the night. In the end, Beavan gets the Gold Naked Man for making her designs more integral to the mood and color of the story.
OK, THIS IS THE LAST OF THE BONUS PICKS — Film Editing: Joe Walker (Dune)
Long-time members of the Mavin Mafia know that I tend to buck conventional wisdom in this category, and this year is no different. The BAFTA went to No Time to Die, while West Side Story earned the Critics Choice. However, neither of these films gained an OscarNom. Meanwhile, the American Cinema Editors Awards (aka the “Eddies”) were handed to Pamela Martin (King Richard — for dramatic feature); and Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum (tick, tick….BOOM! — for musical or comedy feature). Both of those films are contending for editing Oscar.
Why Dune? Because its my pick for Sound Oscar (OOOPS. I LIED. ANOTHER BONUS PICK!), and lately the editing and sound Oscars are like, yes, Oscar peas and carrots, a trend noted several years ago by Hollywood Reporter Oscar forecaster and LA Dodger statistician Ben Zauzmer. Here’s hoping for another serving.
Cinematography: Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)
While much of the main Oscar storylines tend to focus on the high drama competitions for Picture and Actress, one of the more interesting subplots is the intense competition between the talents behind Dune and The Power of the Dog for the technical awards, or what many are now calling the “craft categories.” Nine of Dune’s ten OscarNoms are in these “behind-the-scenes” categories, competing with The Power of the Dog in five of them. You may want to get that now well-used coin out for another Dog (Ari Wegner) vs Dune (Greig Fraser) contest. The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) gave their annual award to Fraser, who previously won an ASC award for his work on Lion but came away empty-handed on Oscar night. Wegner notched a win at Critics Choice, but recently Fraser added a BAFTA to his mantle. Meanwhile, lurking to play the role of spoiler is Janusz Kaminski (West Side Story), who is angling for an Oscar cinematography hat trick for two other collaborations with director Steven Spielberg in the ’90s: Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan.
I give the edge to Wegner largely because Academy voters typically honor both a film’s director and cinematographer, although it is not the peas and carrots pairing we’ve seen with Picture and one of the writing categories.
Documentary: Summer of Soul
It’s been a season of awards for Summer of Soul, which heads into Oscar night with wins at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Soul’s main competition is the tremendously innovative Flee, the first feature to score OscarNoms for Documentary, Animated Feature, and Picture. Documentary is Flee’s best shot at a win, but Academy voters’ hearts will be with Soul.
Animated Feature: Encanto
Oscar poolers who annually pine for the Maven’s picks know my alliterative rant for this category: “Pick Pixar!” This year, I would add four words to this advice: “…at your own risk.” Looking to add yet another Gold Naked Man to the legion of Pixar/Disney awards is Encanto, which combines vivid visuals with memorable music from Lin Manuel Miranda. Over the last fifteen years, only three animated features not produced by a Pixar/Disney team have won Oscar, and the worthy non-Mouse House contender this year is The Mitchells vs The Machines, which earned the Critics Choice Award, while Encanto earned top honors at the Golden Globes and BAFTA.
Save the coin. Encanto for the win.
International Picture: Drive My Car
It’s been a great ride for Drive My Car, which has been getting Parasite-level buzz, especially after earning additional OscarNoms for Picture and Director.
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Going into awards season, I was expecting a run from Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who stood out among a cast of acting heavyweights, and notched an early win at the Golden Globes. We did see a run, but it came from CODA’s Kotsur. A moving performance has been matched by joyously moving and humble acceptance speeches at SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Expect one more as Kotsur becomes the second deaf performer to win an acting Oscar, joining his co-star Marlee Matlin, who won for Children of a Lesser God.
Supportive Actress: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
A sneak peek at Ariana’s acceptance speech:
I like to be in America!
Winning with glee in America!
No upsets to see in America!
Oscar for me in America!
Actor: Will Smith (King Richard)
Will he?
Or Will he not?
Those were the questions at the start of awards season, when I anticipated a duel between Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog). So far, it’s been all Will, with wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. Through an array of past performances that speak to his range as an actor, the seemingly unflappable Smith has always found a way to add a dash or two or more of his trademark humor, charisma and charm to every role. Until King Richard. There’s not the slightest hint of Will Smith in his portrayal of Richard Williams, the laser-focused father with a vision quest to propel his daughters Venus and Serena to sports stardom and immortality in the lily-white world of professional tennis. It’s Smith’s most powerful and compelling role to date, and if there was any threat of competition from Cumberbatch, it ended after Smith’s soulful acceptance speech at SAG.
He Will.
Actress: Who the Hell Knows? (Insert Film Name Here)
Break out the pentagon-shaped coin because we truly have a five-filly face-off for Oscar leading lady. After seeing Spencer, I thought it was Kristin Stewart’s Oscar to lose, with potential competition coming mainly from Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter). So no surprises early in the season when Colman grabbed the Gotham and Kidman scored at Golden Globes.
And then things got nutty.
First, SAG voters didn’t even nominate Stewart and then handed their award to the darkest of dark horses, Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye). BAFTA goes even one step deeper into the nutty pool by nominating only one SAG contender (Lady Gaga (House of Gucci),) while snubbing the entire field of Oscar nominees.
You could argue that Chastain is the current favorite with a win at Critics Choice to go with her SAG. And then there’s the fact that she’s been in the Oscar dog house for a decade as the poster-girl for Zero Dark Thirty, the grippingly controversial hunt-for-bin Laden saga that appeared to endorse torture of war prisoners. You could say she’s due, but should it be for this film, which has only one other OscarNom (for hair and makeup, which it will win….and YES. HOW’S THAT FOR A STEALTH LATE INNING BONUS PICK!!)?
A compelling case can be made for the other four leading ladies. Colman arguably would be the favorite here but for her upset win (The Favourite) over Glenn Close (The Wife) a few short years ago. Kidman’s Lucille Ball is Oscar-worthy, as is Stewart’s Diana (if Stewart wins, she would be the first Oscar Actress winner not to have earned a SAG and BAFTA nomination). And in the last few weeks, the buzz for Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) has been on the rise, and rightly so.
So your guess is as good as the Maven’s here, and I would (grudgingly) go with Chastain. (Yes, weighted poolers, put this pick on the first line)
Director: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
There’s no denying the power of the Jane. Add a Gold Naked Man to her trove of trophies this season.
Film: CODA
My earlier filibuster about the preferential ballot, as well as my Adapted Screenplay pick, make my Picture prediction a bit anti-climactic. Had this been a standard popular ballot, The Power of the Dog would be the favorite here, given the overall quality of the filmmaking, writing, and acting. Its wins at Critics Choice and at BAFTA (which uses a popular ballot with five nominees) would have made Oscar a foregone conclusion, making this awards season Dog’s own bowl of kibble.
And then along came SAG Ensemble and Producer’s Guild Picture wins for CODA, and a BAFTA Adapted Screenplay win for Siân Heder, and the momentum and formula for success started to change. Longtime Maven Mafia readers know my take on Oscar Picture voters — they either lean toward “feel-good” or “serious” fare, with the former having the edge because serious movies tend to be polarizing. The biggest threat to a “feel good” Oscar Picture favorite is the presence of other feel-goods, as we saw five years ago, when La La Land was seen as the favorite, only to have the Picture Oscar taken from them (literally speaking….thank you, Faye Dunaway!) and given to Moonlight. My reasoning for the loss: the strong showing of another feel-good film, Hidden Figures, which won SAG Ensemble, and thus, was effectively taking votes away from La La Land.
With Dog as the “serious” favorite, and CODA the clear “feel good” favorite, the edge in a preferential ballot arguably goes to CODA. The one wld card here is Belfast, a hybrid “serious-feel good” film, which snagged British Picture at BAFTA and could be the Hidden Figures spoiler here that works in Dog’s favor. That’s possible, but what also works in CODA’s favor is it being the right film at this moment in time, which you can’t help but feel not just when you watch it, but when you see how cast and crew have responded to their earlier award wins, notably at SAG, which do influence voters.
That’s a wrap for this year’s fearless forecast! Watch my Facebook or Twitter (@QuothTheMaven65) feeds for realtime opining on all things Oscar. And for you first timers, remember my mantra: as we start to (hopefully) de-mask and return to some kind of normal, go rediscover and support your local movie houses, especially the old-school, epic large screen venues, and not just to finally see that Top Gun sequel (after all, we have new reasons to root for Tom against those mysterious MiG fighters). And when you venture into the theater or get comfortable in front of that massive 85” QLED 8K Ultra HD TV to watch the ever-growing offerings of streamed content (and are we excited about the Obi Wan series (Disney+) and the third (and likely final) season of Ted Lasso (AppleTV)?), set those cell phones on mute, close your mouth when munchin’ on the ‘corn, and please, please, please shut the hell up, especially if you’re seated near the Movie Maven.
Happy viewing and for you Oscar poolers, to borrow from The Godfather, Oscar pooling is a dish best served bold.
Robert (#MovieMaven)
